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AI_2050

Pupose

AI_2050 is an update over my 1978 forecast of brain like intelligence on personal computer in 2010-2030 time frame.

How well did we do against forecast?

Let us stipulate now that the last paragraph of 1978 paper should simply be dismissed as pandering to the intended audience. I simply had no good idea where the software defining intelligence would come from.

In the 40+ years which have elapsed, we have a good candidate idea: neural networks. The Google backed Waymo autonomous vehich has logged over a million miles of onthe road robot driving. AI apps are being applied to medical diagnostics with reported success. Voice recognition and understanding are widely deployed. Face recognition has made recent gains.

So, AI surrounds us now but little of that runs on personal computers. It often runs in the cloud and, as such, is *available* to personal computers. The same architecture allows AI to reach mobile phones, not accounted for in 1978. For example, personal assistants such as Cortana and Siri now fit in the pocket.

We are in the midst of machine intelligence even now. ... but is it human or exceeding human level intelligence? On the whole no.